It can't be denied that Mitt Romney is the clear current front-runner for the Republican Party's presidential nomination. But among the Republican field in 2012 the next most compelling story might just be the consistency of Ron Paul. He did well in Iowa, finishing a close third; he did well in New Hampshire, finishing second. His poll numbers are even improving in South Carolina and beyond.
Let's take a closer look at Paul's campaign and explore his options going forward:
Could Ron Paul beat Mitt Romney, or anyone else, for the Republican nomination?
It seems highly unlikely and, in fact, almost impossible to imagine at this point. While clearly Paul has developed a solid following since he ran for president four years ago -- his showing in the polls is considerably better this time around than in 2008 -- unlike many of his follow Republican candidates, his popularity has remained remarkably steady throughout the 2012 campaign. While he has certainly seen a bump in the polls in recent weeks, it is difficult to imagine Paul getting the massive wave of widespread new support from across the nation that he would clearly need in order to overtake Romney in the upcoming primaries and caucuses.
So if he can't win, why is he staying in the race?
Well, Ron Paul certainly has a better chance to win the nomination at this point then, say, Rick Perry or Jon Huntsman and those two candidates remain in the race. As he has in past presidential races, Paul seems to find himself making arguments that other GOP candidates didn't make -- eliminating five cabinet level departments, slashing defense spending, an isolationist foreign policy. As a result, even if he can't win the nomination, Paul seems to be hoping to at least influence the conversation a bit. Whatever you might think of Paul's stances on the issues, he clearly has real conviction and seemingly a true desire to change the status quo in American politics.
Also, at 76 years old, Paul will likely not be running for president again. He has little to lose now by staying in the race and making things interesting for as long as he can.
Will he run as a third-party candidate?
There has been a lot of speculation that Paul might dump the Republican Party and make another third-party play for president. What isn't often talked about is his run as a member of the Libertarian Party during the 1988 presidential campaign when Paul did extremely poorly and received less than one-half percent of the vote. Paul probably realizes that he can do more ideological influence from within the G.O.P. rather than outside the party. Also, Paul clearly does not want President Obama to win a second term and a third party run would likely benefit Obama.
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